This is a big dilemma that is currently faced by Indian Air Force, Ministry of Defence (MOD), India & Government of India........
It all started around 10-15 years back when Indian Air Force was on the verge of facing severe fighter shortage since almost all of the Mig-21 fighter fleet, which were in Air Force for more than 40 years, had to be retired. This needed replacement & IAF floated a requirement of 126 fighters to replace it's ageing fleet. Then NDA Government sanctioned Mirage-2000 purchase but with the change in Government the contract was scrapped & open tender was floated instead.
World's Largest International Fighter Purchase......The Saga BEGAN!
This opened the gates of the biggest tender of fighter purchase - 126 fighters/$15 billions. MMRCA process which has become an ever continuing process with final contract still in a state of limbo. Six fighters had joined the race - Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Thyphoon, F-16, F-18, Mig-35 & SAAB Gripen. Finally two made the shortlist after technical trials - Rafale & Thyphoon. Rafale, finally made the cut on complete life cycle cost & French were in party mood since this was the first foreign order for Rafale & that too a whopping $15 BILLION!!!
That was 2012-13 & HERE the good news ENDS........
Contract negotiations haven't got completed yet & complete deal is once again on the verge of being SCRAPPED!
Reasons Being:
- COSTS have grown exponentially ( >$20 billions ).
- Indian authorities in doubt if French can be trusted with such a big ORDER.
- Dassault reluctant to share crucial technology & also not in favor of local production by HAL.
Though there has been some good news for Dassault & French as during his visit to France earlier this year, PM Narendra Modi signed contract for 36 Rafales under G2G deal.
The question in Everyone's mind is what NEXT? of 126 originally planned, 36 are already ordered. Rest can be ordered if costs & Technology transfer negotiations goes according to what Indian side want or else touching even the order of 50 Rafales would be a CHALLENGE.
No RAFALES what THEN?
If Indian Minister of Defense is to be believed it is going to be more Sukhoi Su-30MKIs. IAF already has 272 on order. Around 50 can be more ordered & more money can be put into the LCA & FGFA fighter programs besides buying two more squadrons of Rafale over three (36 aircrafts) already ordered.
Numbers are not yet adding up for the IAF. It has a sanctioned strength of 45 squadrons & is currently down to 32! The LCA induction is delayed so are the FGFAs & Rafale is anyone's GUESS. It needs NUMBERS & FAST since it's arch rival Pakistan & competitor China are BEEFING up there own Air Forces.
Hopefully, things will fall in place & IAF will continue to have it's air power/dominance INTACT.
******HJ******
Excellent study and i agree with you that govt of Hindustan now comes ahead with something solid to boost the air power. Su-35. Su-35 can supercruise as well.
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