From Godavari to P-17A: Indian Warship Building Comes of Age...

It took 19 years for Indian Navy to commission three non-stealth Brahmaputra Class Frigates....

They were the Prequel to the current "Make in India" story. Since then Indian warship building has indeed come a long way.....

From 19 years that made the Brahmaputra class ships, It took 16 years for Shivalik (P-17) class stealth frigates....

Each class had three warships.

Now here is the catch - It will take only 11 years (from design board to commissioning) for next generation stealth frigates - Project 17A & not just three but seven of them!!

The plan is that two shipyards - MDL, Mumbai & GRSE, Kolkata, four & three respectively. This added to the adoption of modular shipbuilding is speeding the entire process manifold.

What's stealthy about Project-17As??

• Missile silos flush with the deck.
• Torpedo launches blending along the sides of the vessel.
• Concealed hangar for a Kamov Helicopter.

What's Modular Construction??

Modular construction involves assembling a ship using 300-ton blocks, constructed to exacting standards. The blocks are constructed elsewhere complete with all the piping, electrical wiring & fitments that go into the section of the ship. During assembly, the piping &  wiring comes together end to end.

All seven ships are expected to be inducted by 2021-22 at nearly $1 billion each!!

Barak-2 + Brahmos 2 +2248 MF STAR + 110 Complement + High level of automation among others make sure that these ships will be king of Blue Ocean!!

Yes, Indian warship building has indeed comes of age....

******HJ****** 

28 Brand New Submarines For Indian Navy in 15 Years!!

Is it True???

Well, if the Indian Naval Planners are to be believed, this can indeed be True!

Currently, Indian Navy is in dire need of strengthening its underwater warfare capability with both rivals - Pakistan & China adding good numbers to there own...

But how the numbers going to add-up?

Indian Navy had long back signed the contract for six French Scorpene submarines & the commissioning of the first one is expected to be completed by next (2016) year & all six by 2020.

Then comes the much awaited tender for six Project 75I submarines where French, Spanish, Russian (among others) submarines are in contention. Soon, the winner will be chosen & Navy expects all six to be inducted well before 2030.

The above two classes were conventional submarine classes. The real punch will be added by inducting the nuclear submarines which India plans to induct in large numbers....

• First comes the much awaited Arihant class Ballistic nuclear missile submarines (SSBN) that will be armed with K-15 Sagarika & K-4 SLBMs. In Total, three of this class is planned.
• Second, Government has given the go ahead for bigger & better SSBN class. Six SSBN of this class will be inducted.
• Third, Nuclear Powered submarines (SSN) are also planned & six of them will be inducted finally.
• Last but not the least, Russia & India are in the final stage of talks to lease another Akula class nuclear submarines to Indian Navy with one already in the service.

When we do the Math:

1. Six Scorpene Class...
2. Six Project-75I Class...
3. Three of Arihant Class...
4. Six SSBNs....
5. Six SSNs....
6. One Akula Class...

Total comes out to be 28 submarines in the next 15 years time-frame!!

Hopefully, without delay, these will be inducted within this time-frame.

******HJ******

The Cost of Pakistani Nukes......

"We are ready to eat grass but we will make the nukes..." 

 - Zulfikar Ali Bhutto

Easier said then done......

People can never accept eating grass at the cost of Nukes......

But what exactly is the COST of Nukes?

Currently, Pakistan's expansion rate of nukes is the fastest in the world where even countries like US & Russia are reducing there numbers.

Estimated numbers stand at 110-120 weapons with addition of around 10-15 more per year. In just few years, Pakistan will cross France in the total number of nuclear weapons to become the third LARGEST nuclear weapons state!!!

(Something for the countrymen to be PROUD of?? Don't think so....)

Add to that, the COLD START DOCTRINE of India is making Pakistani establishment more anxious, resulting in it's decision to build battlefield nukes (These affect much smaller area). Not just the building, even the decision to use them would be made by local commanders & not the politicians sitting in Islamabad.

This is a very SCARY scenario, but before making any conclusions, let's finally come to the cost analysis.

What are the costs involved?

• Building a nuke
• Storing
• Providing security

Nukes that are already made incurs the last two costs for complete lifetime & the new ones need all three....

In an upcoming blogpost, we will completely breakdown the cost analysis but for the sake of convenience in this one, we are directly giving our estimates.....

We have estimated that Pakistan spends anywhere between $2-3 Billions every year on nuclear weapons!! This is about 1% of GDP of Pakistan; A country which is ranked very low in human development index.

This cost is only going to increase with the increase in numbers......

Thus, in the end, world is facing great insecurity because of following reasons:

• Exponential growth in the number of Pakistani nuclear weapons.
• Economic impact of spending on nuclear weapons.
• Fear of falling Pakistani nuclear weapons in the hands of terrorists.

GRASS FOR NUKES? Think Again!!

******HJ******

Indian Navy - The Future Looks Bright!!

It is the most POWERFUL navy in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR)........

It is one of the very few Navies in operating TWO CARRIER BATTLE GROUPS (CBGs).........

It is the FIFTH largest Navy in the world........

But.....

           That's NOT ENOUGH!!!

You have to constantly keep growing & expanding your areas of "INFLUENCE" if your end goal is to become a Global SUPERPOWER!!!

Well, as the things stand, Indian Navy is well on course....

If it's induction plans are analyzed then probably by 2025-30 time-frame, Indian Navy will be a force that no country can afford to IGNORE.

& Here goes the Shopping List.....

• PROJECT 75 - Six Scorpene class Submarines at around $2 billions (all to be inducted by 2020).
• PROJECT 75I - Six conventional Submarines of a different class at $10 BILLIONS!! Soon the tender will be floated (all to be inducted by 2025/27).
• LEASE OF SECOND AKULA NUCLEAR SUBMARINE! from Russia costing close to $1 billion (Probable date - 2018).
• THREE ARIHANT CLASS NUCLEAR SUBMARINES at $9 billions (by 2025).

• SIX NUCLEAR POWERED ATTACK SUBMARINES (SSN) at $15 billions (by 2030).
• Under PROJECT 17A, seven stealth frigates to be inducted at around $8 BILLIONS! (by 2025).
• PROJECT 28A - four anti-submarine corvette at around $1.5 billions (all by 2020).
• PROJECT 15A - three stealth destroyers at around $4 billions (by 2020).
• PROJECT 15B - follow-up of 15A with four stealth destroyers at around $5 billions (by 2023-25).
• INS VIKRANT & INS VISHAL aircraft carriers at around $9 billions by 2027.
• 65 TEJAS FIGHTERS - By 2023 ($3 billions).
• 150 Naval Utility Helicopters + 139 Naval Multi-Role Helicopters + 8 MRMR aircraft + 12 P-8Is MMA = $17 billions (by 2027).
• About six LANDING PLATFORM DOCKS (LPD) at $3-4 billions (by 2027).

So, in the next 10-15 years, the Indian Navy will spend around $90-100 BILLIONS!! to increase it's numbers & to add more & more lethal power.

The list just don't end at warships & aircraft, Indian Navy is also constructing important naval bases of great strategic value to complement it's warships..

                                                    Be it the largest Naval Base of Asia at Karwar

                                                                                                        or 

                                                  Nuclear Submarine base at Rambili,

Indian Navy is letting no stone unturned to transform itself from a powerful Navy to Unchallenged Navy!

For Indian Navy ---> Man + Machine + Bases = A GREAT future!

******HJ******

Sukhoi 35MKI - The New DARK HORSE?

The Race is getting HEATED.......

• It's a Multirole Air Superiority fighter....
• With Maximum takeoff weight of nearly 35,000 Kg.....
• Maximum speed of MACH 2.25!
• Range of 3600 Kilometers.....

Nope, it's not any American Fighter, it's the most advanced Sukhoi aircraft that the company can offer in the Market.....

SUKHOI - 35 (MKI?)

 

 

Till now it was Sukhoi - 35 but why the additional MKI? Patience.... :)

 

 

 

There MAYBE an unexpected buyer of these super flankers - INDIA!!!

 

 

Russia has offered to India to jointly produced these birds - "An MKIised version of Sukhoi-35"

 

Weather India accept the offer or not is anyone's guess, but the offer is not completely ruled out in the MOD's circle.

 

There are many reasons that can make these SUPER FLANKERS the new DARK HORSE......

 

• Indian Air Force is way short of it's sanctioned strength & new numbers are adding way to slowly. IAF had gone for 126 Rafales in it's MMRCS tender but that deal too is in jeopardy with cost going out of roof & only 36 of them have been sanctioned till now.
• Sukhoi-35 is the latest 4++ generation fighter that Russia has to offer & India is already building Sukhoi-30s Indian version (MKI) so switching to a higher version of same flanker platform won't be much difficult.
• IAF has to desperately add numbers & all three planned inductions - LCA, FGFA & RAFALE are delayed. Sukhoi - 35's "Indianized" version (MKI) would be the best option & a cheaper option that can be inducted in numbers & QUICKLY.

 

Looking at the present scenario.....

 

Sukhoi-35 + MKI  may turn out to be a Dark Horse......

 

& Maybe out of NOWHERE, IAF may END up inducting them!!

 

 





To RAFALE or NOT to RAFALE........

 

This is a big dilemma that is currently faced by Indian Air Force, Ministry of Defence (MOD), India & Government of India........

 

It all started around 10-15 years back when Indian Air Force was on the verge of facing severe fighter shortage since almost all of the Mig-21 fighter fleet, which were in Air Force for more than 40 years, had to be retired. This needed replacement & IAF floated a requirement of 126 fighters to replace it's ageing fleet. Then NDA Government sanctioned Mirage-2000 purchase but with the change in Government the contract was scrapped & open tender was floated instead.

 

World's Largest International Fighter Purchase......The Saga BEGAN!

 

This opened the gates of the biggest tender of fighter purchase - 126 fighters/$15 billions. MMRCA process which has become an ever continuing process with final contract still in a state of limbo. Six fighters had joined the race - Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Thyphoon, F-16, F-18, Mig-35 & SAAB Gripen. Finally two made the shortlist after technical trials - Rafale & Thyphoon. Rafale, finally made the cut on complete life cycle cost & French were in party mood since this was the first foreign order for Rafale & that too a whopping $15 BILLION!!! 

 

That was 2012-13 & HERE the good news ENDS........ 

 

Contract negotiations haven't got completed yet & complete deal is once again on the verge of being SCRAPPED!

 

Reasons Being:

1. COSTS have grown exponentially ( >$20 billions ).
2. Indian authorities in doubt if French can be trusted with such a big ORDER.
3. Dassault reluctant to share crucial technology & also not in favor of local production by HAL.

Though there has been some good news for Dassault & French as during his visit to France earlier this year, PM Narendra Modi signed contract for 36 Rafales under G2G deal.

 

The question in Everyone's mind is what NEXT? of 126 originally planned, 36 are already ordered. Rest can be ordered if costs & Technology transfer negotiations goes according to what Indian side want or else touching even the order of 50 Rafales would be a CHALLENGE.

 

No RAFALES what THEN?

 

If Indian Minister of Defense is to be believed it is going to be more Sukhoi Su-30MKIs. IAF already has 272 on order. Around 50 can be more ordered & more money can be put into the LCA & FGFA fighter programs besides buying two more squadrons of Rafale over three (36 aircrafts) already ordered.

 

Numbers are not yet adding up for the IAF. It has a sanctioned strength of 45 squadrons & is currently down to 32! The LCA induction is delayed so are the FGFAs & Rafale is anyone's GUESS. It needs NUMBERS & FAST since it's arch rival Pakistan & competitor China are BEEFING up there own Air Forces.

 

Hopefully, things will fall in place & IAF will continue to have it's air power/dominance INTACT.

 

******HJ******

 

RIC The New tRICk!!

 

India & China have fought a border war in 1962, Russia & China had there own border tensions in the past. But now can these three nations (RIC) come together to play a new tRICk in global affairs?

 

India & China shares the largest border dispute of the world but at the same time China has become the largest trading partner of India & India is looking for big investments from China which has huge surplus of forex reserves . Similarly, Russia & China have there own tensions. The rise of neighboring China is making Russia JITTERY but again, China is Russia largest trading partner & China has huge investments  in Russia's oil/gas & military sectors.

 

There tensions aside, all three emerging powers have one common goal - To end US supremacy in Global affairs. This is one goal that is making these powers to forget there bilateral issues & come together.

 

The US rule the world basically by two factors:

 

• Dollar Diplomacy - DOLLAR is a Global currency accepted everywhere. Global trade is conducted in Dollar & the power to print Dollar is in the hands of US. This gives immense economic power to the US & thus gives economic control of the world to the US.

If these three nations decide to do intra-nation trade between    them in non - Dollar currency than this would be a big blow to dollar supremacy as they share hundreds of billions of dollars of trade together.

 

• Global Military Reach - It's of no doubt that if there is any country's military that can reach any part of the world then it's only that of USA. With troops stationed in all continents & Blue water navy stationed in all oceans with eleven Aircraft Carriers each carrying seventy 4++ Generation fighter aircrafts, US military power can not be challenged (at least for now). It uses this power to maintain it's "SUPERPOWER" status.

There is no way that RIC can currently challenge US' military might or it's Global presence. What they can certainly do is to increase there own military power individually & can get to a consensus to form a MILITARY BLOC of sorts in the near future.

 

Challenging the US' MIGHT in the short term would be very difficult for RIC but they can certainly come closer & initiate the chain of events where in the end they are in some position to change the equation. For that they have to put all there differences aside.

 

******HJ******

Economic Unions or MILITARY BLOCKS or both?

 

21st Century world is fast changing. Countries now know that in this globalized world, for overall economic development, they have to get closer to each other. Thus, countries are getting closer & closer, so much so that in some cases, even the relevance of International border getting DIMINISHED. The best example  being - THE EUROPEAN UNION, each of it's member states is now forgetting national identities & adopting a more European one. Travel among nations is visa free & many political (& other) decisions are made collectively.

 

The most important factor that brought the same European nations, that started the two world wars, closer was "ECONOMICS", but the question arises are they so close that European Union can turn to a military block with common military? Will an attack on any territory of UK be treated as an attack on Europe?

 

Similar question arises for a North American Union or maybe SAARC or ASEAN? It's better said than done. No doubt Globalization is bringing together nations but projecting a common military requires immense trust on each other. No way nations are going to share there military secrets & military R&D as there national resources were utilized over time to develop them.

 

Sharing secrets is the first requirement of developing trust but why will a country like US share it's F-22 technology with a country like Canada? It has taken immense money, Human Resources & time to develop it. Or why will France share Rafale technology with say Greece? or why will India share INS Arihant technology with say Bangladesh?

 

Forming an economic association is one thing but forming a formidable military block is totally another. Even the Economic associations are being questioned now. The Greece Crisis made Germany pay majority of bailout Package & German people started wondering as to why were they made to pay for other's mistakes? If Economic association is becoming burden for some, similarly military block may say the same story where majority of resources will be put up by bigger powers & in case of a war it means more casualties for few but the credit of win will be given to all.

 

It can be concluded that in near to longer terms no bigger nation would like to take security burden of smaller ones since it will be a drain on it's resources. Thus, thought of military alliances for now is far fetched.

 

******HJ******

Is NUCLEAR WAR between India & Pakistan Possible?

 

India & Pakistan have fought four wars but even the thought of a fifth one between them sends shivers. Reason? Both countries are a NUCLEAR POWER with range of delivery systems to choose from.....

 

But the question which often arises - Is NUCLEAR WAR really possible? The question should actually be rephrased to ARE NUCLEAR WEAPONS REALLY AN OPTION?

 

Let's go back in time, Indo-Pak rivalry starts from the day these two nations got independence from Great Britain. Kashmir has been unresolved issue that has made these enemies fought three wars. Apart from these, the water issue, Sir Creek & Siachin issue, terrorism etc. have made sure that enmity remains forever. Conventionally, Indian military has always been far superior to that of Pakistan & thus to grab Kashmir, Pakistan has started to use terror as a state policy by fully funding & motivating various terror groups to raise fear among Indians by terror attacks. But 21st century India is fast changing, there has been huge pressure on Government to avenge any such terror attacks on the soil of India.

 

For retaliating against Pakistan's policy, Indian military has formed a new war doctrine - THE COLD START, where small Indian battalions will cross border within hours of any such attack & inflict huge damages to Pakistani side before any reinforcements can arrive. The idea is to take Pakistani side by surprise & get enough leverage before the International pressure comes or nuclear threshold is crossed. Pakistan, on the other hand is getting prepared for just this kind of warfare & talks are that the Pakistani nuclear threshold has been lowered by the use of cold start doctrine by India. Pakistan is making more & more battlefield nukes to use against invading Indian army.

 

The statements of Indian National Security Advisor DHOVAL is of utmost importance here. He said that India will retaliate with nuclear weapons if India or INDIANS anywhere in the world are attacked by the same. The statement is clear, India won't sit idle if it's citizens are bombed by nukes be it battlefield or not. Thus, the question arises that does Pakistan military/Polity has the necessary will to escalate a conventional conflict to a nuclear one? Probability says NO. The thing is that most hawkish of American or Soviet leaders which had plethora of options to deliver these weapons during cold war used to developed cold feet at the thought of using the option. 

 

Times have changed & world has turned into a GLOBAL VILLAGE with each country dependent on another for it's economic development & India occupying one of the most important place in this global picture. Using Nukes against India can turn many nations against Pakistan. Indian retaliation itself can be massive & unimaginable with India having huge advantage in second strike capability with the induction of nuclear submarines - INS CHAKRA & INS ARIHANT.

 

Nuclear weapons are weapons never to be used & the question always will be who blink first? So going by probability & historical facts, use of Nukes by Pakistan against India is almost impossible. But war has made humans do insane things & anything can happen if Pakistan finds itself in a desperate situation with lot of it's territory under Indian control during a war scenario. We can only predict things as of now......  

 

******HJ******

New World DISORDER!!

History has always shown us that the TRANSITION of power from one country to another has never been smooth. In bringing long term ORDER, the world has always seen short term DISORDERS. Will the 21st century be any different?

 

Let us look things in PERSPECTIVE. Though militarily there have been one or the other empires that have dominated this world but economically, there had only been two nations - INDIA & CHINA, who have dominated the world economy for thousands of years. At almost similar output (30% each of world output), it has always been hard to determine as to which nation has dominated more but largely this was the picture which changed completely with  the advent of INDUSTRIAL AGE & many European powers started making there mark, most importantly the UNITED KINGDOM, which became the most powerful seafaring nation. There has always been a saying - "Nation which controls the sea, controls the land" & UK is the most ideal nation to cite as an example. With increasing military power, thanks to the industrial revolution, it colonized almost half of the world including economic giant INDIA. Thus, UK became the undisputable superpower of the globe for more than 200 years.

 

Everything that rises has to fall & UK wasn't any different. Two world wars in the early half of 20th century, rising independence movements in colonies & emergence of other powers had it's baring on the "GREAT" tag of Britain. The transition of power was again not smooth as the world saw the biggest war of human history in the shape of WORLD WAR II before this transition could take place. Post World War II saw the rise of two great powers - USA & USSR. Thus, the world was divided into two ideological blocks which started 45 years of "COLD WAR". The world lived in constant fear of Nuclear ARMAGGEDON if the "cold war" turned "HOT" & it certainly did come close to it many times. But as they say, nothing is permanent, so was the cold war. It ended with 1991 disintegration of USSR, making US the sole superpower of the world.

 

Things are changing & changing fast, for good or bad? Only time will tell. US' power has saturated & is on a downward curve. New powers are emerging in shape of Russia, China, India among others. Though challenging the mighty US is still a far cry for any of them, but there rise can't be discarded either.

 

This world has seen multiple POLES (powers), two poles & single pole in just a century. Multiple poles had resulted into world wars, two poles resulted into cold war & a single pole resulted in totally unchallenged & unchecked power in the hands of a single nation. Now again we are moving towards a multi-polar world....will this transition be also chaotic & resulting into something that world can ill-afford - THE THIRD WORLD WAR!? Only time will tell.....

 

******HJ******

Can INDIAN NAVY rule the INDIAN OCEAN?

 

There is no other country in the world so STRATEGICALLY placed that the name of an ocean has been named after it - THE INDIAN OCEAN. Right at the top of the Ocean sits INDIA & is the largest country of the region with most powerful military especially the NAVY. These condition make India the IDEAL nation to rule the Indian Ocean, but the question is can it rule the Ocean & the region through it's military might?

 

Indian Navy is the FIFTH LARGEST NAVY in the world. It is one of the few navies which regularly operates carrier battle groups & currently operating TWO of them - INS VIKRAMADITYA & INS VIRAAT. INS Vikramaditya, the 45,000 tones flagship of Indian Navy, is the largest of any regional ship & with around 30 Mig 29k fourth generation fighters, it is a force to recon with. Currently, there are 48 ships under construction in Indian shipyards - frigates, destroyers, submarines, corvettes, aircraft carrier among others. This will ensure that the future Indian Navy is more powerful, more efficient & more of a threat in the eye of the enemies & other regional/world powers.

 

But the sailing wouldn't be SMOOTH. There are powers who won't like an Indian rise in it's own backyard. For them Indian Ocean is not an INDIAN LAKE where India has the authority. Some of them are:

 

• USA - The Sole SUPERPOWER of the world with the largest military budget. US only likes it's rule over every part of the globe & Indian Ocean is no different. Being an important sea highway for trade between east & European nations, US would certainly like it's control over it. With a base in Diago Garcia, it has ensured considerable presence in this very strategic region. US will always try to undermine Indian presence in IOR & will never accept it's DOMINANCE.
• China - Another important player is fast emerging China. Though not sharing any border with Indian Ocean, it has lot at stakes in the region with majority of trade (to & fro with Middle East, Africa &  Europe) flow through this region. Indian dominance makes China VULNERABLE to blockade & thus harm it economically since it's relationship with India is far from being cordial because of largest border dispute that the two countries share. Both have even fought a short border war in the year 1962. Thus, in the garb of fighting piracy or giving assistance to Pakistan, it has increased it's naval presence in the region. It has also been reported that Chinese NUCLEAR SUBMARINES have increased there presence in the so called "INDIAN BACKYARD".

There are many external players that will thwart any Indian efforts to dominate the region but all is not well at home either. The delay in shipbuilding, weak political will, lethargic Indian bureaucracy & decision making is hurting INDIAN INTERESTS. The only way India can challenge any external player in what it's recognize it's ZONE OF INFLUENCE is by inducing more warships & thus empowering it's Navy. This can ensure that India be in a position to call Indian Ocean as INDIA'S OCEAN!!

******HJ******