India & Pakistan have fought four wars but even the thought of a fifth one between them sends shivers. Reason? Both countries are a NUCLEAR POWER with range of delivery systems to choose from.....
But the question which often arises - Is NUCLEAR WAR really possible? The question should actually be rephrased to ARE NUCLEAR WEAPONS REALLY AN OPTION?
Let's go back in time, Indo-Pak rivalry starts from the day these two nations got independence from Great Britain. Kashmir has been unresolved issue that has made these enemies fought three wars. Apart from these, the water issue, Sir Creek & Siachin issue, terrorism etc. have made sure that enmity remains forever. Conventionally, Indian military has always been far superior to that of Pakistan & thus to grab Kashmir, Pakistan has started to use terror as a state policy by fully funding & motivating various terror groups to raise fear among Indians by terror attacks. But 21st century India is fast changing, there has been huge pressure on Government to avenge any such terror attacks on the soil of India.
For retaliating against Pakistan's policy, Indian military has formed a new war doctrine - THE COLD START, where small Indian battalions will cross border within hours of any such attack & inflict huge damages to Pakistani side before any reinforcements can arrive. The idea is to take Pakistani side by surprise & get enough leverage before the International pressure comes or nuclear threshold is crossed. Pakistan, on the other hand is getting prepared for just this kind of warfare & talks are that the Pakistani nuclear threshold has been lowered by the use of cold start doctrine by India. Pakistan is making more & more battlefield nukes to use against invading Indian army.
The statements of Indian National Security Advisor DHOVAL is of utmost importance here. He said that India will retaliate with nuclear weapons if India or INDIANS anywhere in the world are attacked by the same. The statement is clear, India won't sit idle if it's citizens are bombed by nukes be it battlefield or not. Thus, the question arises that does Pakistan military/Polity has the necessary will to escalate a conventional conflict to a nuclear one? Probability says NO. The thing is that most hawkish of American or Soviet leaders which had plethora of options to deliver these weapons during cold war used to developed cold feet at the thought of using the option.
Times have changed & world has turned into a GLOBAL VILLAGE with each country dependent on another for it's economic development & India occupying one of the most important place in this global picture. Using Nukes against India can turn many nations against Pakistan. Indian retaliation itself can be massive & unimaginable with India having huge advantage in second strike capability with the induction of nuclear submarines - INS CHAKRA & INS ARIHANT.
Nuclear weapons are weapons never to be used & the question always will be who blink first? So going by probability & historical facts, use of Nukes by Pakistan against India is almost impossible. But war has made humans do insane things & anything can happen if Pakistan finds itself in a desperate situation with lot of it's territory under Indian control during a war scenario. We can only predict things as of now......
******HJ******
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